Lithuania has all the prerequisites over the coming decades to independently produce enough synthetic fuels to meet national demand and to become a significant hub for this sector in the Baltic region. An analysis conducted by Amber Grid shows that the development of synthetic fuel production can be based on local resources, renewable energy, and rapidly advancing green technologies.
Lithuania may have substantial volumes of key feedstocks required for synthetic fuel production—biogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) and green hydrogen. According to Amber Grid’s market analysis, by 2040 the potential availability of biogenic CO₂ in the country could reach around 3.5 million tonnes, while hydrogen production capacity could amount to approximately 5.9 GW per year.
This means that Lithuania could produce the required volumes of synthetic fuels using domestic resources rather than relying on imported fossil fuels, thereby contributing to the development of a long-term, resilient energy system.
“Synthetic fuels are an opportunity to reduce dependence on energy imports, strengthen energy independence, and increase resilience to geopolitical tensions and price volatility. At the same time, this is an important step toward building a more stable and secure national energy system. These fuels can become a real alternative to fossil fuels in sectors where electrification is challenging—such as aviation, maritime transport, and heavy road transport,” says Nemunas Biknius, CEO of Amber Grid, Lithuania’s gas transmission system operator.
The development of the synthetic fuels sector could become an important driver of economic growth. It is estimated that between 2030 and 2060, the development of this sector in Lithuania could require around EUR 3.4 billion in investments, while the total direct and indirect economic benefit could reach up to EUR 40 billion.
“The synthetic fuels industry in Lithuania can be developed as a systemically integrated solution that strengthens the country’s energy security and resilience. The entire value chain—from local feedstocks, CO₂ utilization, and green hydrogen production to final synthetic fuel products—creates conditions for generating high added value, skilled jobs, and sustainable budget revenues, while enhancing Lithuania’s role as a reliable energy and industrial partner in the region,” says N. Biknius.
Economic modelling has shown that the transition to synthetic fuels and the reduction of dependence on fossil fuel imports between 2030 and 2060 could result in savings of approximately EUR 24 billion. A further EUR 32 billion could be saved by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Synthetic fuel production is based on capturing CO₂ from biogenic sources and using renewable electricity, making it consistent with Lithuania’s and the European Union’s climate neutrality objectives.
Demand for synthetic fuels in Europe is already being driven by EU regulations and initiatives aimed at reducing emissions and promoting the use of sustainable fuels. The RED III Directive, ReFuelEU Aviation, FuelEU Maritime, as well as the EU Emissions Trading System, require aviation, maritime transport, and other hard-to-electrify sectors to use less fossil fuel and more sustainable alternatives such as e-methane, e-methanol, e-SAF, and others. As a result of these requirements, demand for synthetic fuels in Europe is expected to grow steadily.
It is projected that by 2040, the development of the synthetic fuels sector will require around 27 TWh of renewable electricity annually, thereby also стимулиating the expansion of renewable energy generation.
The Amber Grid analysis was prepared in line with the Guidelines for the Development of Hydrogen in Lithuania for 2025–2027, approved by the Government of the Republic of Lithuania.
